Daily uk news The map that shows Britain could be beating Covid: Boris delays lockdown tightening as England's outbreak starts to ease with Patrick Vallance saying current curbs are 'enough' and Neil Ferguson pointing to 'plateau' in hospital cases MetiN

MetiNews.Com - Boris Johnson is set to hold off tightening the rules despite soaring deaths and Nicola Sturgeon imposing extra curbs in Scotland, as experts welcomed a 'flattening' in the number of new infections.

Daily uk news The map that shows Britain could be beating Covid: Boris delays lockdown tightening as England's outbreak starts to ease with Patrick Vallance saying current curbs are 'enough' and Neil Ferguson pointing to 'plateau' in hospital cases MetiN

MetiNews.Com - Boris Johnson is set to hold off tightening the rules despite soaring deaths and Nicola Sturgeon imposing extra curbs in Scotland, as experts welcomed a 'flattening' in the number of new infections.

Daily uk news  The map that shows Britain could be beating Covid: Boris delays lockdown tightening as England's outbreak starts to ease with Patrick Vallance saying current curbs are 'enough' and Neil Ferguson pointing to 'plateau' in hospital cases MetiN
14 January 2021 - 13:45

Breaking News ! England could escape tougher lockdown measures for now after science chief Patrick Vallance suggested the current measures are 'enough' to control the mutant Covid strain and Neil Ferguson pointed to a 'plateau' in hospital admissions.Boris Johnson is set to hold off tightening the rules despite soaring deaths and Nicola Sturgeon imposing extra curbs in Scotland, as a heat map of the country's outbreak suggests the situation is starting to improve.After the UK recorded its deadliest toll yet with 1,564 victims, Sir Patrick warned last night that the UK is in for a 'pretty grim period' as deaths will not fall for 'some weeks' . But he also indicated that the case rate was more encouraging, with a run of four days of week-on-week falls. Government data show many areas of England turned 'green' in the week to January 8, meaning cases are dipping - although there are also worrying 'hotspots' such as parts of the North West.    Sir Patrick said: 'I think what we know now, which we didn't know a few weeks ago, was would these sorts of restrictions be enough to bring this virus under control with the new variant? And the answer is yes, it looks like it is, and things are at least flattening off in some places, not everywhere.'Professor Ferguson - whose modelling is reputed to have triggered the first lockdown in March - said this morning that the growth rate was slowing nationally, and in some NHS regions there were 'signs of plateauing'.He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: 'It looks like in London in particular and a couple of other regions in the South East and East of England, hospital admissions may even have plateaued, though it is hard to tell if they are coming down.'It has to be said this is not seen everywhere – both case numbers and hospital admissions are going up in many other areas, but overall at a national level we are seeing the rate of growth slow.'The powerful Covid O Cabinet committee is met today to consider the state of play, including signing off a travel ban from South America due to fears over an emerging super-strain in Brazil. However, it did not ramp up the lockdown in England.Priti Patel confirmed this morning that the Government is not bringing in new social distancing restrictions 'today or tomorrow'. There are claims ministers are instead focusing on improving compliance, with reports an ad campaign could deliver alarming messages such as: 'Grabbing a coffee could kill.'  In a series of appearances yesterday, Mr Johnson refused to rule out extra measures, but hailed 'early' signs that coronavirus is coming back under control.  The PM insisted the measures in England were being kept 'under constant review' as Labour demanded to know why they were looser than last spring despite cases being higher. He warned that the NHS was at 'substantial risk' of being swamped, and the 'only way' of protecting it was to follow the 'current rules'. But despite the mounting death toll, Mr Johnson sounded a notably optimistic tone about the emerging impact of the restrictions. He said the country was 'now starting to see the beginnings of some signs' that the crackdown was having an effect in parts of the country, while stressing it was 'early days' and urged people to 'keep their discipline'. MailOnline analysis suggests the outbreak in England may have started slowing before the blanket lockdown on January 4, with infection numbers peaking in the worst-hit regions at the start of the year. The tide appears to have turned in parts of the country experiencing the worst outbreaks – London, the South East and the East of England – in the first week of 2021, with cases coming down since then. Coronavirus hospital admissions have also started to fall in London and the South East, although the numbers of patients are still rising on wards after surging above the peaks recorded in the first wave.  more videos 1 2 3 Watch video Workman appears to threaten driver with crowbar in fit of road rage Watch video Military horses spooked as moped rider crashes into them Watch video Cruel lion toys with squealing baby warthog as it tries to escape Watch video Nathan Evans explains why he started singing Sea Shanties Watch video Armie Hammer appears to drink and take drugs while driving Watch video Carol and David Richards talk being fined for visiting care home Watch video Family get a shock after pride of lions entered their house Watch video Cute moment Cavalier Spaniel joins in with Joe Wicks' workout Watch video Moment Ford uncontrollably slides down road and collides with car Watch video Man says 'thank you 2020' before ten-person NYE party in hotel Watch video Outrageous moment 'man gets child to steal parcel from driveway' Watch video Moment cash security guard is attacked by machete armed thug DM.later('bundle', function(){ DM.molFeCarousel.init('#p-19', 'channelCarousel', { "activeClass" : "wocc", "pageCount" : "3.0", "pageSize" : 1, "onPos": 0, "updateStyleOnHover": true }); }); Sir Patrick Vallance (right) warned last night that the UK is in for a 'pretty grim period' as deaths will not fall for 'some weeks',  but he indicated that the case rate was more encouraging.  Professor Ferguson (left) - whose modelling is reputed to have triggered the first lockdown in March - said this morning that the growth rate was slowing nationally, and in some NHS regions there were 'signs of plateauing'   Priti Patel said this morning that the Government is not bringing in new social distancing restrictions 'today or tomorrow' On another day of coronavirus carnage:Ministers faced accusations of failing to protect the UK today as they prepare to ban flights from Brazil days after a new Covid super-strain emerged; A requirement for UK arrivals to have tested negative within the previous 72 hours, announced last week and due to come into force tomorrow, has been delayed until Monday;People previously infected with the coronavirus have more protection against reinfection five months later than people getting the Oxford vaccine, and the same level of immunity that is provided by the Pfizer jab, a Public Health England (PHE) study has found;A total of 4.46million people were waiting to start hospital treatment in England at the end of November, the highest since records began; Boots and Superdrug have started dishing out coronavirus vaccines this morning after No10 finally turned to the high street to deliver its lockdown-ending promise of immunising almost 14million people by mid-February. Appearing in ITV's This Morning, Ms Patel stressed that ministers are focusing on increasing the enforcement of current restrictions to keep the spread of coronavirus down rather than bringing in new measures.She said: 'The plans are very much to enforce the rules.'This isn't about new rules coming in, we're going to stick with enforcing the current measures.'We are not thinking about bringing in new measures today or tomorrow.'Speaking to ITV's Peston programme last night, Sir Patrick said: 'The daily numbers jump around a bit but I think we are in a position now - when you look at the number of infections we've had over the past few weeks and how this is likely to continue, so I don't think they're going to drop very quickly - that I'm afraid we're in a period of high death numbers that's going to carry on for some weeks.'It's not going to come down quickly even if the measures that are in place now start to reduce the infection numbers. So we're in for a pretty grim period, I'm afraid.' The three deadliest days of Britain's Covid crisis have all been recorded in 2021, with today's figure topping the 1,325 last Friday. But deaths always lag weeks behind cases, meaning fatality counts won't begin to drop until at least a fortnight after infections fall.  Public Health England bosses said there had now been 'more deaths in the second wave than the first'.But Government statistics also suggest the UK's outbreak is finally starting to slow. Another Sir Patrick did not rule out the need for tougher restrictions to help bring infection rates down further across the UK, but said current rules are clearly having some impact on the numbers.He explained: 'I think we follow these [rules], the evidence we have so far is this is beginning to work, holding it flat, beginning to potentially push it down. We need to monitor it and you know it may be that we need more on top of this at some point, I'm absolutely not ruling that out.'It may be that we need more on top of this, and I think those obviously are decisions that ministers would need to make. But I think at the moment the evidence is that this is having an effect.'    Did England pass its peak BEFORE lockdown? Covid outbreaks started to slow at start of 2021 in Kent and other Tier 4 areas  England's coronavirus outbreak could have started to slow down before the national lockdown started on January 4, data suggest as infection numbers appeared to peak in the worst-hit regions at the start of the year.The tide appears to have turned in parts of the country experiencing the worst outbreaks – London, the South East and the East of England – in the first week of 2021, with cases coming down since then.Millions of people living in those areas were forced into gruelling Tier 4 restrictions the weekend before Christmas, ordered to stay at home for two weeks to try and control the new variant before the national lockdown started. Infection rates fell in most parts of the country at the start of January, suggesting local lockdown rules in place in December were having an effect but it wasn't fast enough to satisfy ministers, who called a drastic national shutdown just days into the new year. National figures paint a similar picture, with the 45,533 new positive tests announced today marking a 25 per cent fall on this time last week and representing the third day in a row that the country's infection rate has come down.It's still too soon for the effects of national lockdown to show up reliably in data but cases starting to come down in some of the worst-affected places suggests that Tier 4 rules were working before they were abandoned. Data from Kent, at the heart of the most recent outbreak, showed that cases were still fluctuating even in Tier 4,  coming down in all of the 13 local authorities put into Tier 4 before Christmas, then spiking again in January before declining again around the time when lockdown was announced.In Liverpool, meanwhile, which was the only part of the country to be downgraded from Tier 3 to Tier 2 in December after officials claimed a mass-testing programme had got the city's outbreak under control, cases skyrocketed at the end of the year and are still rising, although the increase has slowed in lockdown. adverts.addToArray({"pos":"mpu_factbox"})Advertisement The PM was grilled at PMQs and then by the cross-party Liaison Committee yesterday as he faced another barrage of demands for the national clampdown to be tightened even further - something that Nicola Sturgeon has announced is happening in Scotland.Speaking to MPs, the Prime Minister said he was 'concerned' about the new Brazilian variant of the virus.'We already have tough measures, as you know, to stop from new infections come from abroad. We are taking steps to do that in response to the Brazilian variation.'It is still yet to be identified in the UK, and there is no evidence that it causes a more severe infection than other strains - although there are fears it may be as transmissible as the Kent strain.It is normal for viruses to mutate and early signs don't suggest that any of the new variants of coronavirus are more deadly than others, but in some places it is evolving to be able to spread faster.If the virus is faster spreading it will inevitably lead to more cases which will in turn lead to a higher death count, even if the strain itself isn't more dangerous.During the Committee, the Prime Minister also warned parents he still wasn't sure whether schools would be allowed to re-open after the February half-term.When asked if they would re-open next month, he said: 'The priority is obviously to get schools open as soon as possible, whether we can do that after the half term depends on a number of things. The success of the vaccination process, depends on us not finding out the South African or Brazilian variants are vaccine resistant.'We have no evidence that they are, but that's got to go well. But the crucial thing is the lockdown measures have to go well. What we are seeing today is some early signs of progress in containing the virus, but it is far, far too early to say if we can see any relaxation in February.' Downing Street is considering options ranging from limiting takeaways and click and collect, to closing more workplaces and nurseries and banning people from exercising with friends. Scientists have cautioned that critical capacity in the NHS will still be under enormous strain into March due to the lag between infection and people getting ill, with up to 250,000 people a day said to be catching the virus.   London Councils and Mayor Sadiq Khan yesterday appealed for Mr Johnson to bring in new measures such as closing places of worship immediately, or risk putting an 'unsustainable strain' on services.Mr Khan lamented a 'heartbreaking' coronavirus milestone as it was confirmed more than 10,000 Londoners have fallen victim to the virus.The latest data from Public Health England shows a total of 10,353 people in London have died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test. A further 7,606 people across the capital are currently in hospital with the disease - 35 per cent higher than the busiest day of the pandemic in the spring.      No 10 pins hopes on us following the rules... but keeps the big stick in reverse HOW RULES MAY CHANGE End exercise meetingsMinisters are considering removing the exemption that allows two people to meet outdoors to exercise.The exemption, which did not exist in the original lockdown, was included as a lifeline for the lonely. But scenes of crowded parks have led to concerns it is being abused.Increase mask wearingHealth officials are examining plans to make masks mandatory in crowded outdoor areas such as supermarket queues and markets. Chief medical officer Chris Whitty said this week that masks were not necessary in most outdoor settings but there 'might be some logic' to wearing them in crowded spaces.Close more businessesSome ministers are pushing for the closure of more businesses, such as estate agents and click and collect retail operations – many of which were shut in the first lockdown. Supporters of the move say it would help limit the spread of the virus and reduce the reasons for people to go out. No10 has not ruled it out.3m social distancingSome Government scientists are pushing for the two-metre social distancing rule to be extended to three, but officials say the idea is on the back-burner for now.Shut churches and nurseriesLondon Mayor Sadiq Khan has called for places of worship to close while Labour wants nurseries shut. But ministers insist neither move is being considered for now. adverts.addToArray({"pos":"mpu_factbox"})Advertisement Ms Sturgeon told the Scottish Parliament yesterday that from Saturday she is banning drinking outdoors and non-essential click-and-collect, as well as going inside eateries to pick up a takeaway. Earlier, Mr Hancock defied mounting Tory calls to guarantee that the draconian restrictions will be eased from March 8 - around three weeks after the government is due to have vaccinated the 14million most vulnerable.But in a glimmer of hope data from the Department of Health suggests England's outbreak may have started to slow down before the national lockdown started on January 4, as infection numbers appeared to peak in the worst-hit regions at the start of the year.Millions living in London, the South East and East of England were forced into gruelling Tier 4 restrictions the weekend before Christmas, scuppering festive plans for millions as ministers tried to get a grip on the new variant of the virus.And in the first week of January the region's infection rates began to drop, suggesting the highest level of measures may have been enough to thwart the spread of the super-infectious mutant strain.It can take up to two weeks for someone who is infected with the virus to start showing symptoms, get a test and then receive a positive result, meaning there is a lag before the impact of restrictions shows up in the data.In another positive sign the second wave may be waning, data also shows hospital admissions in London and the East of England peaked in the days after lockdown was imposed.

. It dropped to 845 the following day. In the South East, hospitalisations also peaked on January 6 when they reached 662.And in the East of England - which was plunged into the highest bracket of restrictions at the same time - they had started to level off by January 4.It can take weeks for someone infected with the virus to suffer symptoms severe enough to be admitted to hospital, meaning there is a delay between a drop in cases and hospitalisations. But the early downturn adds to claims that Tier 4 - which kept schools open - was enough to control the mutant variant.Even as they slowed across the capital and in regions first plunged into the toughest bracket, however, the number of patients in hospital continued to rise because the number of new cases needing treatment each day is still high.And hospital admissions for patients suffering from the virus are also continuing to rise in the South West, North West, North East and Midlands. From Saturday people picking up takeaway meals will be barred from entering eateries, instead having to wait outside, she told the Scottish Parliament Sturgeon gazumps PM again by tightening lockdown in Scotland   Nicola Sturgeon banned Scots from drinking outside and making non-essential click-and-collect orders yesterday as she tightened Scotland's lockdown still further. From Saturday people picking up takeaway meals will be barred from entering eateries, instead having to wait outside, she told the Scottish Parliament.And new laws will be brought in to put a legal requirement on businesses to force them to allow staff to work from home if they can do so. Addressing MSPs at Holyrood she said new lockdown restrictions appear to be having an effect, with the rise in new daily cases seen around the turn of the year slowing down.However, she said there is 'no room for complacency', adding: 'It is too soon to be entirely confident that the situation is stabilising.'Even if it is, this will only be because of lockdown - it is not, unfortunately, an indication that it is safe to ease it yet in any way.'Pressure on the NHS, Ms Sturgeon said, was likely to continue 'for some time' as she urged people to continue to adhere to the new regulations. Only retailers selling essentials, such as clothing, baby equipment and books, will be able to offer collection services in Scotland from this weekend. adverts.addToArray({"pos":"mpu_factbox"})Advertisement Despite the drops, hospital admissions remain above the highest levels seen during the darkest days of the first wave and in the final month of last year - in a warning sign health care staff could yet be overwhelmed. In London they stood at 150 at the start of December before soaring upwards, and never went above 750 in April. For the South East, they stood at 165 in December, and never moved above 323 in the first wave. It's still too soon for the effects of national lockdown to show up reliably in data but cases starting to come down in some of the worst-affected places suggests that Tier 4 rules were working before they were abandoned.  Some Government scientists fear, however, the true case rate is still running at more than 250,000 a day. They have warned the Prime Minister that, even with the rollout of the vaccine, the death rate may not start to fall until the middle of next month.Despite the more positive news on infections, Sir Keir goaded Mr Johnson at PMQs yesterday that he was already too late toughening the rules.  'The next big decision is obvious, the current restrictions are not strong enough to control the virus,' he said.'Can the Prime Minister tell us when infection rates are much higher than in March, when hospital admissions are much higher than last March, when death rates are much higher than last March, why on earth are restrictions weaker than last March?'Mr Johnson responded: 'We keep things under constant review and we will continue to do so.'And certainly if there is any need to toughen up restrictions, which I don't rule out, we will of course come to this House.'But he also highlighted the 'serious damage that is done by lockdowns'. 'The lockdown measures we have in place combined with tier four measures that we were using are starting to show signs of some effect and we must take account of that too,' Mr Johnson said. Sir Keir took the premier to task for being 'slow to act' when infection rates began to surge in December.'The last PMQs was on December 16,' the Labour leader said. 'The Prime Minister told us then that we were seeing, in his words, a significant reduction in the virus. He told us then that there was no need for endless lockdowns and no need to change the rules about Christmas mixing.'Since then, since that last PMQs, 17,000 people have died of Covid, 60,000 people have been admitted to hospital and there has been over a million new cases. How did the Prime Minister get it so wrong and why was he so slow to act?'But a clearly infuriated Mr Johnson shot back: 'Of course, what (Sir Keir) fails to point out is that on December 18, two days later, the Government was informed of the spread of the new variant and the fact that it spreads roughly 50-70 per cent faster than the old variant, and that is why it is indeed correct to say that the situation today is very troubling indeed.'He added: 'This is the toughest of times, but we can see the way forward.'  more videos 1 2 3 Watch video Workman appears to threaten driver with crowbar in fit of road rage Watch video Military horses spooked as moped rider crashes into them Watch video Cruel lion toys with squealing baby warthog as it tries to escape Watch video Nathan Evans explains why he started singing Sea Shanties Watch video Armie Hammer appears to drink and take drugs while driving Watch video Carol and David Richards talk being fined for visiting care home Watch video Family get a shock after pride of lions entered their house Watch video Cute moment Cavalier Spaniel joins in with Joe Wicks' workout Watch video Moment Ford uncontrollably slides down road and collides with car Watch video Man says 'thank you 2020' before ten-person NYE party in hotel Watch video Outrageous moment 'man gets child to steal parcel from driveway' Watch video Moment cash security guard is attacked by machete armed thug DM.later('bundle', function(){ DM.molFeCarousel.init('#p-48', 'channelCarousel', { "activeClass" : "wocc", "pageCount" : "3.0", "pageSize" : 1, "onPos": 0, "updateStyleOnHover": true }); }); Rates of coronavirus have continued to surge in Liverpool, which was only in the unusually lenient Tier 2 before Christmas Cases in Kent appear to have come down as a result of Tier 4, at first over Christmas and then again in early January, but they spiked in the middle around new year, suggesting the restrictions weren't working well enough to satisfy the Government  Why DO experts say the outbreak is slowing if the death toll is continuing to soar? How 21-day lag between getting infected and becoming severely ill means fatalities won't peak for another fortnight Prominent SAGE scientists claimed today Britain's winter coronavirus wave is flattening after cases fell for four days straight — despite the country recording its worst death toll ever on Wednesday.Another 1,564 more Covid fatalities were announced yesterday across the UK in the deadliest day since the pandemic began, with the total number of laboratory-confirmed victims on track to pass the grisly 100,000 mark by February.But Sir Patrick Vallance, No10's chief scientific officer, and Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling plunged the UK into its first lockdown in March, said there are 'early signs' the third national shutdown is slowing the crisis.They have pointed to the fact that, nationally, the number of people catching Covid is trending downwards, with the 47,525 positive tests yesterday across Britain down by a quarter on last week's figure. But there is a roughly three-week time delay between someone catching the disease and dying from it, which means it takes about 21 days for a trend in cases to translate to the fatality figures.Because Britain only went into lockdown a week ago, daily Covid deaths are likely to continue to rise for at least another fortnight before falling. Here, MailOnline answers your questions on the UK's current Covid situation:Are cases going down everywhere?Covid infection rates are falling across swathes of authorities in the UK, according to most recent official data up to January 8.Cases are falling in boroughs in London, the South East and East of England — which were bearing the brunt of the winter wave ahead of the national shutdown on January 4.Infections in Kent — one of the first areas of England to be slapped with the harshest local lockdown measures — were actually slowing before the third lockdown, suggesting the tough Tier Four restrictions in place there were having some effect.In London, the number of people testing positive per 100,000 fell from a peak of 1,116 on January 4 to 1,005 by January 7. But there was a slight uptick again on January 8 across every region, according to Department of Health figures.   In the East of England dropped from 856 per 100,000 to 741 and in the South East from 774 to 679 in the same time period.In areas with the lightest rules, however, cases continued to surge late into the year and, despite almost the entire country getting tougher rules on boxing day, continued to rise into the start of lockdown, with some still going up. Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said: 'It is too early to be confident that the data from the past few days have indeed meant we have now reached the peak.'The current positive signs may represent a statistical glitch or a short-lived effect causing recent increases to stall only for the surge to be resumed.'It is also still too early for this to be driven by the vaccination campaign. Nevertheless if the recent trend is maintained this would be very good news for our NHS.'Why are infections still going up in some parts of country? Infections are still going up in some parts of the country because it takes weeks for lockdown measures to take effect.It is not by chance that the places where cases continue to climb are in areas that enjoyed looser restrictions in December.For example, the Liverpool city region — formerly Britain's Covid hotspot — is seeing steep increases in infection rates again.In Knowsley, where the biggest rise in England happened over the past week, cases were 1,399.3 per 100,000 people in the seven days ending January 9, up from 796.8.  Merseyside was under Tier Two restrictions right up until January, which allowed restaurants, cinemas and gyms to stay open. The same was true for places in the South West. Torbay in Devon saw its case rate double in the last week to 254 per 100,000.When will hospital admissions start to fall? Hospital admissions are already falling across London and the South East and are slowing in the East, official figures suggest.Department of Health statistics show daily admissions in the capital hit their high point on January 6 — on day two of the shutdown — when the seven-day average stood at 864. It dropped to 845 the following day. In the South East, hospitalisations also peaked on January 6 when they reached 662.And in the East of England — which was plunged into the highest bracket of restrictions at the same time — they had started to level off by January 4 but have not yet started to fall. more videos 1 2 3 Watch video Workman appears to threaten driver with crowbar in fit of road rage Watch video Military horses spooked as moped rider crashes into them Watch video Cruel lion toys with squealing baby warthog as it tries to escape Watch video Nathan Evans explains why he started singing Sea Shanties Watch video Armie Hammer appears to drink and take drugs while driving Watch video Carol and David Richards talk being fined for visiting care home Watch video Family get a shock after pride of lions entered their house Watch video Cute moment Cavalier Spaniel joins in with Joe Wicks' workout Watch video Moment Ford uncontrollably slides down road and collides with car Watch video Man says 'thank you 2020' before ten-person NYE party in hotel Watch video Outrageous moment 'man gets child to steal parcel from driveway' Watch video Moment cash security guard is attacked by machete armed thug DM.later('bundle', function(){ DM.molFeCarousel.init('#p-61', 'channelCarousel', { "activeClass" : "wocc", "pageCount" : "3.0", "pageSize" : 1, "onPos": 0, "updateStyleOnHover": true }); }); But even as admissions have slowed across the capital and in regions first plunged into the toughest bracket, the overall number of patients in hospital is still rising because the number of new cases needing treatment each day is still high. Almost 36,500 infected Britons were receiving NHS care in January 11. Despite the glimmer of hope, which comes alongside falling infections, hospital admissions for patients suffering from the virus are also continuing to rise in the South West, North West, North East and Midlands.The roughly three-week lag between a person catching Covid and falling seriously unwell with it means hospital rates could continue to climb for another fortnight. But they are anticipated to fall after that in line with the infection rate trends.But when will NHS hospitals start to feel ease in pressure?The number of coronavirus infections, hospitalisations, admissions to intensive care and deaths is going to keep rising in the UK for weeks, with the peak not hitting until next month, according to a top NHS chief. Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said he expects pressure to spike and begin to tail off in February because the third lockdown does not appear to be working as quickly as the one in spring, he claimed.He warned a health and social care committee of MPs yesterday: 'It is pretty clear the infection rate is not going to go down as quickly as it did in the first phase.'We were hoping for a sharp peak that came sooner and shorter. So something for example where we saw the peak and started to crest it in mid to late January. 'It now looks like the peak for NHS demand may actually now be in February. Now if that’s right that’s going to basically mean there’s a higher level, and a more extended period of pressure on the NHS than we were expecting even just a week ago.'A wave of admissions was now hitting the East of England into the Midlands, the North West and South West, after London, the South East and the East bore the brunt of the winter wave.'That's a particular worry because trusts in the Midlands and the North have got significant numbers of patients still in hospital from the second surge.'   Why are deaths still rising?Deaths always lag weeks behind cases because of the time it takes for patients to catch and fall ill with Covid.Although it varies from person to person, experts say it takes roughly three weeks for an infected person to succumb to the disease.For this reason scientists are able to forecast how deaths will trend based on how infections are fluctuating.UK cases have fallen for four days in a row which appears to show that infections are trending downwards just a week into the national lockdown.Because infections dropped from last week, it would suggest that deaths will follow in about a fortnight's time.

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Daily uk news The map that shows Britain could be beating Covid: Boris delays lockdown tightening as England's outbreak starts to ease with Patrick Vallance saying current curbs are 'enough' and Neil Ferguson pointing to 'plateau' in hospital cases MetiN


Daily uk news The map that shows Britain could be beating Covid: Boris delays lockdown tightening as England's outbreak starts to ease with Patrick Vallance saying current curbs are 'enough' and Neil Ferguson pointing to 'plateau' in hospital cases MetiN


Daily uk news The map that shows Britain could be beating Covid: Boris delays lockdown tightening as England's outbreak starts to ease with Patrick Vallance saying current curbs are 'enough' and Neil Ferguson pointing to 'plateau' in hospital cases MetiN


Daily uk news The map that shows Britain could be beating Covid: Boris delays lockdown tightening as England's outbreak starts to ease with Patrick Vallance saying current curbs are 'enough' and Neil Ferguson pointing to 'plateau' in hospital cases MetiN

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